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Health Economics Wiki
Statistical Methodsevidence: highv1.0.0

Extrapolation

The projection of model parameters or outcomes beyond the observed follow-up period of clinical trials.

Definition

Extrapolation involves extending model estimates beyond the period of observed trial data to cover the full time horizon required for economic evaluation. Parametric survival models are fitted to trial data and then extrapolated. The choice of extrapolation model is a major source of uncertainty in oncology models. Validation against external data sources and expert clinical judgement is essential.

Canonical Identity

Version
1.0.0
Published
4/26/2026
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